What happened:
In 2017, the city of Oakland, California created the Department of Violence Prevention with the aim of reducing homicides by 80%.
In 2017 Oakland saw 71 homicides. In 2020, there were 109 homicides. And just halfway through 2021, homicides have already reached 65.
A surreal demonstration of the violent crime problem occurred last week in front of Oakland City Hall, as a news crew interviewed the director of the Department of Violence Prevention.
Two armed robbers walked up to the camera man and attempted to steal his camera at gunpoint.
The crew’s armed security guard pulled his own gun, and he managed to scare off the attackers without anyone being hurt— and without the camera being stolen.
What this means:
This shows how bad crime has become in major cities over the past year, and how bold criminals have become.
Notably, who prevented the armed robbery? An armed (private) security guard.
But the state of California is one of the most restrictive states when it comes to gun ownership and concealed carry.
Normal people who can’t afford to hire a personal security guard have the most to lose from restrictive licensing.
In addition, last year Oakland cut the police department budget by $14.3 million amid the protests, riots, and defund the police movement. It also redirected $18 million for the next two years from police to violence prevention.
That’s not to say policing doesn’t need reform. Police unions and qualified immunity, for example, often keep bad officers from being held accountable for their actions.
It’s possible that if police were entirely defunded, and the tax dollars returned to the residents, that individuals and communities could fund better solutions to crime— whether that be traditional private security, or community mediators.
But by stripping some of the police budget, while leaving police in charge of reducing crime, is the worst of both worlds.
It ensures less effective public law enforcement, without much incentive for private solutions to take its place.
Residents of these big cities will continue to fork over tax dollars to police, while many officers remain on a sort of “soft strike”— going to work and collecting a salary, without really doing their jobs.
What you can do about it:
The most obvious solution is to stay far away from the violent crime epicenters (i.e. cities), or move away if you haven’t yet.
Almost every major city saw a significant increase in murder, and violent crime rates over 2020, and continuing into 2021.
Here are the stats from some of the worst affected major US cities, in order of population.
New York City, New York— After a 43% increase in murders in 2020, homicides are up an additional 9.1% this year. Hate crimes are up 335% against Asians, and 37% against Jews.
Los Angeles, California— Homicides rose 37% in 2020. So far in 2021, they are up an additional 22% with 141 murders. Over the past year, there has been a 33% increase in violent crime, and a 42% increase in motor vehicle theft.
Chicago, Illinois— After a 55% increase in murders in 2020, homicides are up an additional 22% this year. There has also been a 22% increase in sexual assault.
Philadelphia, Pennsylvania— Homicides increased by 40% in 2020, and are up an additional 35% so far in 2021. It’s on track to be the deadliest year in Philadelphia’s history.
San Francisco, California— In addition to violence, property crimes have skyrocketed— car break-ins are up 700% in parts of the city. Burglaries were up 753% in May compared to the same time last year during lockdowns, and 75% during the same time in 2019.
Seattle, Washington— Homicides increased by 63% in 2020.
Portland, Oregon— Homicides rose 82% in 2020.
Louisville, Kentucky— Homicides increased by 61% in 2020 to a record high of 193— a murder rate of 31 per 100,000 (the nationwide murder rate rose to just over 6 per 100,000 in 2020).
Atlanta, Georgia— In 2020, homicides increased by 38%. In 2020, there were 124 aggravated assaults per 100,000 residents. In 2021, that rate has increased to 166 per 100,000.
Minneapolis, Minnesota— Homicides rose 72% in 2020 to 82 deaths, the highest since 1995. Violent crime rose by about 20% from the average of the previous five years, to 5,422 incidents of homicide, rape, robbery and aggravated assault.
St. Louis, Missouri— In 2020, the homicide rate reached 87 killings per 100,000 residents. That’s comparable to some of the most dangerous cities in Mexico and Venezuela.
It’s worth noting that even within these cities, crime is concentrated in a small number of poor neighborhoods. But do you really want to worry about stray bullets, or crime spill-over?
In addition, massive protests erupted in cities across the nation all last year, which often escalated into violence, looting, arson, and other property crimes. Many of these cities are essentially powder kegs that can go off at any time, for any number of reasons.
It is a sad predicament for people who cannot afford it, but private security and gated communities will likely be the main solution moving forward.
Really, this already has been the solution.
Gated communities started taking off in the early 1980s, and grew four-fold before the turn of the century. Today, newly built communities are more likely than ever to be gated or walled, especially in urban areas.
Over the past decade, the ranks of private security have grown by 4.7% while law enforcement officers have increased by only 2.2%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
As of May 2020, there were over 1,054,000 private security guards in the US, compared to 658,000 law enforcement officers.
In other words, people are increasingly taking personal safety responsibility into their own hands.
