It seems that everywhere we turn at the moment we cannot escape elections. Actual elections as happened in the UK yesterday and will happen in France this weekend, endless chatter about the upcoming US election where as of now we still don't know whether the current President will actually run.
It's easy to get lost in the minutiae of all these campaigns, the endless media coverage, the rallies, the controversies.
Don't let that detract from the clear message that voters are sending, we don't want the incumbent. It doesn't matter whether the incumbent is left or right, it primarily matters that they are the incumbent.
We have just seen that in the UK and will likely see it in France this weekend. We saw it in Australia, New Zealand, Brazil and based on current polling will definitely see it in Canada. On current trends we may well have the same in the US as well, although that is complicated by the challenger being a former incumbent himself.
The point is that voters are extremely unhappy with their current situations.
The economic malaise has well and truly set in across the Western world, and people are desperately voting for change in the hope that it will indeed change their circumstances. They are sick of seeing their standard of living decline, having unaffordable housing and large scale increases in the cost of living.
Unfortunately, the problems have far deeper roots and likely require a complete structural shift. Governments and central banks are in many ways trapped, it is very difficult to make these structural changes. Instead, they continue to do what they know best: kick the can down the road.
But that is getting harder to do, and they are rapidly bumping up against the limitations of this approach. Inflation or huge economic downturns, for now they continue to choose the former, hoping they can inflate their problems away.
As investors, that means all roads lead to real assets and many real assets have appreciated significantly in recognition of these trends.
There are a few pockets, however, that remain unloved and it is one of these that we focus on this month.
Find the trend whose premise is false, and bet against it. George Soros One of the biggest lies being told in the world today is that “green energy” as defined by Greta Thunberg, i.e. wind and solar, are efficient technologies that will power the future. The additional lies that flow from this false narrative include: …
